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Demographics
The population as of July 1, 2000 was 538,823, a decrease of about 2,000 from a year earlier. This was the smallest decline since population losses began in 1993. The population appears to be stabilizing as a result of lower net out-migration. Net out-migration slowed to 2,077 for the year (compared to 5,133 in 1999), reflecting the expanding economy and improved job prospects. The natural population increase (births less deaths) continued to decline in 2000, reflecting long-term trends. Births decreased to 4,724 (down 2.4% from 1999) while deaths increased to 4,599 (up 7.1%), resulting in a natural population increase of 125.
Outlook for 2001
Real GDP growth of 2.0% is forecast for 2001, led by growth in exports and consumer spending. Terra Nova will begin production in late 2001—total oil production (Hibernia and Terra Nova) will increase by about 4% in 2001. In addition to final development activity on Terra Nova, preliminary work on White Rose will provide stimulus to the economy. However, the winding up of Terra Nova construction will result in a decline in capital investment of 4.8%.
Tourism will be boosted by Receiving the World, the Marconi centennial celebration. This celebration will focus on the
historical significance of the first Trans Atlantic wireless signal received in 1901 and on telecommunications advancements over the past 100 years. It will also provide significant
international exposure to the Province’s information and communications technology industries.
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Reduced net-migration resulted in lowest
population loss since 1993 |
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Photo: Ronalda Steele/Courtesy of Village Mall
Consumer confidence remains high |
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Employment is expected to grow to 206,900, allowing the unemployment rate to decline to 16.2%. Continued wage growth, coupled with further tax cuts, will result in personal income growth of 3.0% and disposable income growth of 3.6%.
Demographic change will remain an important issue for the Province in the foreseeable future. Within the next year or so, the Province is expected to experience natural population losses (deaths are expected to exceed births). This will mean that to maintain population stability, historic patterns of net out-migration must be reversed. Net out-migration is expected to fluctuate but remain low over the next several years.
A key downside risk at this time is the magnitude of the economic slowdown in the United States. Since the United States is the Province’s major export market, general weaknesses in that economy will most likely exert some downward pressure on the demand for local resource exports. However, the severity of the slowdown and consequently the impact on the Province’s exports over the medium term remains undetermined. |
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| Source: Statistics Canada |
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